• English
    • español
    • português (Brasil)
  • English 
    • English
    • español
    • português (Brasil)
  • Login
View Item 
  •   COVID-19
  • Resources in English
  • Technical documents and research evidence on COVID-19
  • View Item
  •   COVID-19
  • Resources in English
  • Technical documents and research evidence on COVID-19
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France

 
Thumbnail
Date
2020-06-05
Author
Roques, Lionel et al.
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
The COVID-19 epidemic started in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. We estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number Re of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (Re=0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of Re is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities. Our approach is based on the mechanistic-statistical formalism, which uses a probabilistic model to connect the data collection process and the latent epidemiological process, which is described by a SIR-type differential equation model.
URI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.00274
Collections
  • Technical documents and research evidence on COVID-19

Browse

AllCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesCategorySubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesCategorySubjects

My Account

LoginRegister

Pan American Health Organization
World Health Organization. Regional Office for the Americas
525 Twenty-third Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037, United States of America

Content Disclaimer (Important notes about the material)

Links

  • WHO International Clinical Trial Registry Platform (ICTRP)
  • WHO Coronavirus disease R&D Blueprint
  • WHO Database of Publications on Coronavirus Disease
  • PAHO Coronavirus Disease
  • PAHO/BIREME Windows of Knowledge COVID-19
  • Evidence aid Coronavirus (COVID-19) resources

  • PAHO Digital Library (IRIS PAHO)
  • Virtual Health Library (VHL)
  • Global Index Medicus (GIM)