dc.contributor.author | Nishiura, Hiroshi | |
dc.contributor.author | Mizumoto, Kenji | |
dc.contributor.author | S.Rock, Kat | |
dc.contributor.author | et al. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-09-06T16:38:17Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-09-06T16:38:17Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2016-06 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300093 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12663/3023 | |
dc.description.abstract | OBJECTIVES:
There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeastern Brazil in 2015.
METHODS:
Temporal distributions of microcephaly, reported dengue-like illness and dengue seropositive in Brazil were extracted from secondary data sources. Using an integral equation model and a backcalculation technique, we estimated the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection.
RESULTS:
If the fraction of Zika virus infections among a total of seronegative dengue-like illness cases is 30%, the risk of microcephaly following infection during the first trimester was estimated at 46.7% (95% CI: 9.1, 84.2), comparable to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. However, the risk of microcephaly was shown to vary widely from 14.0% to 100%. The mean gestational age at delivery with microcephaly was estimated at 37.5 weeks (95% CI: 36.9, 39.3).
CONCLUSIONS:
The time interval between peaks of reported dengue-like illness and microcephaly was consistent with cause-outcome relationship. Our modeling framework predicts that the incidence of microcephaly is expected to steadily decline in early 2016, Brazil. | en_US |
dc.language | English | en_US |
dc.subject | Zika Research Project | en_US |
dc.subject | Zika Virus | en_US |
dc.subject | Zika Virus Infection | en_US |
dc.subject | Microcephaly | en_US |
dc.subject | Pregnant Women | en_US |
dc.title | A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection | en_US |
eihealth.country | Others | en_US |
eihealth.category | Epidemiology and epidemiological studies | en_US |
eihealth.type | Research protocol information | en_US |
eihealth.maincategory | Save Lives / Salvar Vidas | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofjournal | Epidemics | en_US |
dc.contributor.corporatename | Japan. The University of Tokyo | en_US |
dc.contributor.corporatename | Japan. Japan Science and Technology Agency | en_US |
dc.contributor.corporatename | Japan. Hokkaido University | en_US |