Evaluating reduction in CoViD-19 cases by isolation and protective measures in São Paulo State, Brazil, and scenarios of release

Abstract

São Paulo State registered the first case of CoViD-19 on 26 February, the first death due to CoViD-19 on 16 March, and implemented the isolation of the population in non- essential activities on 24 March, which is programmed to end on 1 June. A mathematical model considering young (below 60 years old) and elder (above 60 years) subpopulations was formulated based on the natural history of CoViD-19 to study the transmission of the new coronavirus in São Paulo State, Brazil. This deterministic model used the data collected in São Paulo State to estimate the model parameters and to evaluate the effects of herd protection, that is, isolation and personal and collective protective measures. Based on the estimated parameters, we evaluated the scenarios of three releases divided in equal proportions elapsed by 14 days between releases, but beginning in three different times (the first release occurring on 1 and 23 June, and 6 July). We concluded that these three strategies of release are equivalent (little difference) in reducing the number of severe CoViD-19 if social behaviour does not change. However, if protective measures as using face mask and hygiene (washing hands, for instance) and social distancing could be massively disseminated in the population to decrease the transmission of CoViD-19 by 80%, we concluded that the health care system may not collapse with release.