COVID-19 deaths that have occurred but are not yet reported – update 18 May 2020
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We have updated our Chain Ladder projections using deaths occurring up to 16 May 2020. The overall occurred but are not yet reported (OBNR) estimates have been reducing due to two factors: 1. The significant reduction in daily deaths and 2. The gradual increase in the speed of reporting these deaths and what may be the catching up or clearing up of previous backlogs of cases. The OBNR as projected by the Chain Ladder is now estimated at 456 cases. The table below shows the projections covering the last three weeks of deaths and also the Bootstrap standard errors for the most recent ten days. With the exception of the most recent day where, understandably, the standard error is high, the rest are more or less in line with the estimated daily reduction in deaths. The reductions in these daily estimates are indicative of the improvements in the reporting of these deaths. This has been reflected in the latest Chain Ladder projection by assuming that all deaths are now being reported within 30 days.