Contact tracing strategies for COVID-19 containment with attenuated physical distancing

Abstract

Contact tracing has been recommended as a critical component of containment strategies for COVID-19. We used a simple epidemic model to evaluate how contact tracing might enable partial relaxation of current physical distancing restrictions. Testing and tracing coverage need to exceed 50% in order for contact tracing to reduce transmission by at least 10%. With high isolation and quarantine efficacy, contact tracing could reduce overall transmission by >40%, which would allow for substantial loosening of physical distancing measures. Benefits of contact tracing could be enhanced by testing all contacts rather than only those with symptoms and by policies to support high adherence to voluntary isolation and quarantine.