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dc.contributor.authorLi, Sijia, et al.
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-29T00:21:00Z
dc.date.available2020-04-29T00:21:00Z
dc.date.issued2020-04-07
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-020-2169-0en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12663/1231
dc.description.abstractThe outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world. Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic. Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation. In this paper, we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model. Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better. Besides, in order to take the government’s control and people’s awareness into consideration, we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease. By using this e-ISHR model, we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei. We also change some of parameters in our model. The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.en_US
dc.languageEnglishen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectCoronavirusen_US
dc.subjectInfectious Diseasesen_US
dc.subjectDisease Outbreaksen_US
dc.subjectChinaen_US
dc.titlePreliminary Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak Using 3-Staged Model e-ISHRen_US
eihealth.countryOthersen_US
eihealth.categoryEpidemiology and epidemiological studiesen_US
eihealth.categoryHealth systems and servicesen_US
eihealth.categoryPublic Health Interventionsen_US
eihealth.typePublished Articleen_US
eihealth.maincategorySlow Spread / Reducir la Dispersiónen_US
dc.relation.ispartofjournalJournal of Shanghai Jiaotong University (Science)en_US


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