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dc.contributor.authorLiang, Kaihao
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-16T15:05:06Z
dc.date.available2020-04-16T15:05:06Z
dc.date.issued2020-04-08
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104306en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12663/1043
dc.description.abstractThe purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.en_US
dc.languageEnglishen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectCoronavirusen_US
dc.subjectInfectious Diseasesen_US
dc.subjectKineticsen_US
dc.subjectSARS Virusen_US
dc.subjectMiddle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirusen_US
dc.titleMathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERSen_US
eihealth.countryOthersen_US
eihealth.categoryEpidemiology and epidemiological studiesen_US
eihealth.typeResearch protocol informationen_US
eihealth.maincategorySave Lives / Salvar Vidasen_US
dc.relation.ispartofjournalInfection, Genetics and Evolutionen_US


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