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dc.contributor.authorChang, Ruijie et al.
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-16T02:56:13Z
dc.date.available2020-04-16T02:56:13Z
dc.date.issued2020-03-31
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11684-020-0768-7en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12663/1029
dc.description.abstractThe outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. The estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55 303–84 520 and 83 944–129 312, respectively, while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13, 2020 with the estimated 13 035–19 108 cases. According to the estimation, the outbreak would abate in March and April all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei Province. Strict prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.en_US
dc.languageEnglishen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectCoronavirusen_US
dc.subjectInfectious Diseasesen_US
dc.subjectChinaen_US
dc.subjectDisease Transmission, Infectiousen_US
dc.titlePhase- and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in Chinaen_US
eihealth.countryGlobal (WHO/OMS)en_US
eihealth.categoryEpidemiology and epidemiological studiesen_US
eihealth.categoryHealth systems and servicesen_US
eihealth.typePublished Articleen_US
eihealth.maincategorySlow Spread / Reducir la Dispersiónen_US
dc.relation.ispartofjournalFrontiers of Medicineen_US


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